TW 經濟，電子股

沒多久之前，執政黨還在因國外競爭力評比中TW的進步，沾沾自喜。

幾月來似乎景氣、就業改善，工作機會增加，消費信心提高。政治人物只有口水，不見建設。2009~2010的反彈，ECFA像是救急的及時雨！卻不是未來的願景規劃！

7月Bloomberg一篇報導談到TW工作外移，失業率是四小龍中最高。說TW不夠開放，不夠國際化(至少英語能力不如人)，跨國公司評估亞太區時，TW總是不如人。

很多衝突的資訊接踵而來，只是看電子業好消息(HTC，蘋果供應鏈，晶圓代工)卻不多，壞消息是雙D被打慘，尤其茂德告急、減資新聞浮上檯面。。

雙D及PC股似乎已是過街老鼠，其他的如IC設計早就失去昔日光彩(或曰奄奄一息)，從業人員心中可能尚以「高科技」自居(雖然不是新貴)，但在分析師眼中早已是「傳產化」，詭調的是近年來有產業創新成績亮眼的似乎只在傳產股。

轉型口號喊了幾10年了，Jim Rogers說：當世界已全然改觀，TW的mindset(心態)尚未改變。意思是我們還沉迷於於過去，工商時報2011-07-11社論「遙想公瑾當年，雄姿英發。」說DRAM產業如今卻是「人間如夢，一尊還酹江月」。

電子業一路走來，時代已然不同，TW固然有其利基也有缺點，即使是後知後覺都有機會採取行動，做出改變，難的是往何處變？又如何變？

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• 雙D變災難「慘業」。
• 友達，奇美電，華映，
• 茂德，南科，華亞科，力晶。
• PC股下跌。
• 某些傳產股大好，如便利商店，85度C。
• Bloomberg說TW摹仿星加坡失敗，工作外移。

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Taiwan Jobs Sucked to China by Failure to Mimic Singapore Economic Model

(www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-03/taiwan-jobs-sucked-to-china-by-failure-to-mimic-singapore-economic-model.html)

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• 過去30年的一代：成衣和玩具(Mattel's Barbie dolls)製造中心，到電腦和智慧手機王國。工廠大量外移到工資低廉的中國，但台灣本身卻沒有發展新的成長產業，因而落後新加坡和香港。
• 未能發展新的成長產業，台灣四．四％的失業率，香港三．五％、新加坡一．九％、南韓三．二％。
• The risks have partly been masked by a rebound in exports since the 2009 global recession, including a surge in shipments to the mainland.
• 電子業如宏達電和鴻海，雖然受惠中國的低成本及市場，但以台灣國內市場為主的企業，如統一，營收成長便遠不如電子業。
• 就業外移：本質上的結構問題。許多大企業都移到海峽對岸，卻沒有創造出新的工作機會來補足。
• 十年前，台灣製造業占ＧＤＰ比重為三十．四％，去年降至二十六．三％。新加坡也同樣有製造業下滑的趨勢，不過新加坡吸引了製藥及生化科技產業投資，找到另一片天。
• 製造業工作佔總受雇人數27%，1987：35%
• 近十年固定資產投資成長 0.06%，上個十年：7.5%.
• English Lacking: 不夠國際化.英語能力落後 Hong Kong and Singapore, 跨國公司眼中，在亞太區 Taiwan is always a low priority.
• Jim Rogers: My main concern with Taiwan is that the world has totally changed and their mindset has not changed yet, adding that he hasn't invested in Taiwan "in a while." 新加坡等亞洲國家都大幅開放，但台灣因為歷史因素，經濟上尚未快速開放。
• 開放，轉型：低獲利、低價值的製造業向高獲利、高價值的服務業。

【讀書筆記】 David Eagleman

關於大腦，意識心與日常生活，聳動的題目說，在日常生活裡，我們不是一直有意識的做出選擇，很多時候倒像是行屍走肉的殭屍，我們卻沒有察覺。

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死後四十種生活(SUM: Forty Tales from the Afterlives)
作者：大衛．伊葛門, David Eagleman
出版：小異出版, 2009年09月25日
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Bloomberg的作者訪談

(www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-05/zombies-in-your-head-not-mind-control-daily-life-interview.html)

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Zombies in Your Head, Not Conscious Mind, Control Daily Life: Interview

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• You may feel in control, but you're actually driven by neural "zombie systems" you'll never even be aware of.
• David Eagleman's "Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain," strips away the primacy of our conscious mind, exploring the underlying forces actually determining our choices.
• Directing the Laboratory for Perception and Action at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Eagleman studies time, synesthesia(共感) and neurolaw.
• "Sum," his book of short stories about various afterlives, is an international best-seller, translated into 23 languages.
• Even though we feel like we're the ones navigating our lives, there is quite a bit about our desires, our motivations, our attractions, our hopes and our beliefs that is generated by parts of our brain that we don't have access to and we're not even acquainted with.The brain is essentially this massive computational device that runs all of its operations under the hood.
• What I conclude is that we might have free will but it's probably going to be a bit player in the operations of the brain. Consciousness does seem to be useful for setting the long-term goals of the system exactly the same way that a CEO does.
• The brain is this alien kind of computational device that can wrap itself around whatever inputs it has.You should be able to plug anything, any data cables, into the brain and it will learn how to interpret those and it will actually have perception.
• Your brain operates as a team of rivals. You are made up of all these competing neural networks that we can image now, these networks that are all battling it out under the hood.
• I'm studying time perception, and what's surprising is that it's so fluid and that we're not just passively tracking this river of time. It's that we're actively constructing it with our brains.